Your First-Quarter Revenue Projection

A financial projection is not a promise. It is a planning tool. It tells you what you need to do to hit your income goal — and it forces you to check whether your goal is mathematically realistic before you spend a single dollar building toward it.

The Simple Baker’s Projection

Start with your monthly income goal from Tab 1. Then work backward:

1. Monthly income goal: How much do you need your bakery to bring in each month?
2. Average order value: Based on your product mix and pricing, what does an average customer order total?
3. Orders needed: Monthly goal ÷ average order value = orders per month
4. Orders per week: Divide by 4 — is that number realistic given your available hours?

Example: Goal = $1,500/month. Average order = $60. Orders needed = 25/month = 6–7 per week. Is 6–7 orders per week achievable with your available baking time? If yes, you have a viable plan. If no, you either need to increase your average order value (bigger orders, add-ons, minimum order amounts) or adjust your income goal for this phase.

Add Your Expenses to the Projection

Revenue is not profit. Fill in your monthly expenses to see what you actually keep:

• COGS (ingredients + packaging) — typically 25–35% of revenue for baked goods
• Insurance: monthly equivalent of your annual premium
• Permits and licenses: amortized monthly
• Software and tools: BatterSuite, etc.
• Marketing: any paid advertising

Revenue minus expenses = gross profit. Gross profit minus your SE tax reserve (15.3%) = what you actually take home.

What to Do With Your Projection

This number tells you whether your goal is realistic. Most first-year bakers underestimate COGS and overestimate the number of hours they can bake. Run the numbers honestly.

If the math doesn’t work at your current pricing — your pricing needs to go up, not your hours. Price for profit. See Appendix D of your binder for the full pricing formula.